Non-beverage alcohol consumption in Russia: new evidence from Jewish Autonomous Oblast.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies in Izhevsk, Novosibirsk, and Kazan have found that non-beverage alcohol is a large part of alcohol consumption in Russia. Whereas those places are relatively high-income cities, there are no studies about such a problem in low-income regions of Russia. The aim of this study is to investigate correlates and factors associated with non-beverage alcohol consumption in eastern regions of Russia, e.g. the Jewish Autonomous Oblast and to assess effectiveness of implementing Russian policies to restrict consumption of non-beverage alcohol. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A survey of adults in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast of Russia was performed on workdays to assess non-beverage drinking patterns in summer 2022. The questionnaire included questions about socio-demographic status and alcohol use, including non-beverage alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. We use logistic regression to identify risk factors of consuming non-beverages. RESULTS: First, ~30% of individuals suffering from alcohol problems drink non-beverage alcohol. Second, those who regularly consume non-beverage alcohol compared with those who chronically drink legal strong alcohol are on average more likely to experience the negative effects of alcohol consumption. Third, income and marriage are the main factors negatively associated with surrogate alcohol consumption. Besides, age shows a curvilinear relationship with that. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that a modified anti-surrogate policy to increase the minimum price of pharmacy alcohol and to enforce restrictions on the sale of non-beverage alcohol is needed in Russia. Such measures could prevent an increase in non-beverage alcohol consumption in Russia against the backdrop of declining real incomes of the population.

Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses.

During the Holocene, the scale and complexity of human societies increased markedly. Generations of scholars have proposed different theories explaining this expansion, which range from broadly functionalist explanations, focusing on the provision of public goods, to conflict theories, emphasizing the role of class struggle or warfare. To quantitatively test these theories, we develop a general dynamical model based on the theoretical framework of cultural macroevolution. Using this model and Seshat: Global History Databank, we test 17 potential predictor variables proxying mechanisms suggested by major theories of sociopolitical complexity (and >100,000 combinations of these predictors). The best-supported model indicates a strong causal role played by a combination of increasing agricultural productivity and invention/adoption of military technologies (most notably, iron weapons and cavalry in the first millennium BCE).

COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the cybernetic revolution, transition from e-government to e-state, and change in social relations.

Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio- and nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and others, which we denote as "MANBRIC convergence". It is shown that the experience of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic has confirmed that the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s at the intersection of a number of medical, bio, digital and several other technologies, with medical needs as an integrating link. Among the multitude of self-regulating systems in the economy and life (which, in our opinion, will flourish during the Cybernetic Revolution) socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs) will play a special role. Thus, COVID-19 becomes a powerful impetus not only in terms of accelerating technological development and approaching the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, but also in changing sociopolitical (and socio-administrative) relations in the forthcoming decades.

Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution.

What have been the causes and consequences of technological evolution in world history? In particular, what propels innovation and diffusion of military technologies, details of which are comparatively well preserved and which are often seen as drivers of broad socio-cultural processes? Here we analyze the evolution of key military technologies in a sample of pre-industrial societies world-wide covering almost 10,000 years of history using Seshat: Global History Databank. We empirically test previously speculative theories that proposed world population size, connectivity between geographical areas of innovation and adoption, and critical enabling technological advances, such as iron metallurgy and horse riding, as central drivers of military technological evolution. We find that all of these factors are strong predictors of change in military technology, whereas state-level factors such as polity population, territorial size, or governance sophistication play no major role. We discuss how our approach can be extended to explore technological change more generally, and how our results carry important ramifications for understanding major drivers of evolution of social complexity.

Non-Beverage Alcohol Consumption In Izhevsk: 15 Years Later.

AIMS: Non-beverage alcohol was a major cause of preventable mortality of working-age males in Izhevsk (Russia) in 2003-2004. The Russian government has since taken measures to reduce availability of non-beverage alcohol. Yet, some types of non-beverage alcohol still remain available for consumers. The aim of this study was to assess the availability and sources of non-beverage alcohol in Udmurtia. METHODS: A survey of adults on the streets of Izhevsk and its environs was performed on workdays to assess non-beverage drinking patterns in 2018. The questionnaire included questions about socio-demographic status and alcohol use, including non-beverage alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-eight people were questioned, of whom, 28% reported consuming non-beverage alcohol. Non-beverage alcohol consumers were more likely to be single, unemployed or retired, younger or older than 19-29 years, have lower educational status and income, have hangovers and drink moonshine. CONCLUSION: Non-beverage alcohol consumption still took place at Izhevsk, a typical Russian city, in 2018, and its availability was still high. Untaxed and cheap medicinal non-beverage alcohol consumption seems to have become the major source of non-beverage alcohol consumption. Further regulation of non-beverage alcohol may be required in Russia.

Evolution of stability of socioeconomic system functioning: Some approaches to modeling (with an application to the case of Egypt, 2011-2013).

This paper proposes a methodological approach to analyzing the evolution of the stability of socioeconomic systems and to assessing the risk of their possible destabilization based on the use of mathematical modeling methods. In this paper, a basic model is presented allowing us to describe the joint dynamics of processes in the economic, organizational, and sociopsychological areas of society. The model shows at what parameters of the socioeconomic system its steady functioning is possible, and at which it is impossible. It is shown that the transition from its steady state to an unsteady one is not smooth but occurs as a leap. This methodology is applied to the analysis of stability and change in the Egyptian socioeconomic system after 2010.

The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010-2020 decade: A retrospective assessment.

This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010-2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe Turchin P. 2018. This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. Turchin P. 2010 conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010-2020 decade in all of these countries.

Distilled Spirits Overconsumption as the Most Important Factor of Excessive Adult Male Mortality in Europe.

AIMS: To explain comprehensively variations in adult male mortality rate in Europe, and in particular, high mortality in some East European countries with particular focus on specific patterns of alcohol consumption. SHORT SUMMARY: Per capita distilled spirits consumption is found to be the strongest determinant of the adult male mortality rate in Europe as soon as the unrecorded alcohol consumption is taken into account. It turns out to be much stronger than the other tested significant determinants such as per capita health expenditures, smoking prevalence, consumption of hard drugs and per capita consumption of vegetables and fruit. METHODS: Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression with adult male mortality rate as a dependent variable, and various indicators of alcohol and drug consumption as well as logarithm of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, logarithm of total per capita health expenditures, latitude (climatic factors), per capita fruit and vegetable consumption, smoking prevalence as independent factors. RESULTS: Per capita distilled spirits consumption turns out to be the strongest determinant of the adult male mortality rate in Europe as soon as the unrecorded alcohol consumption is taken into account. It turns out to be much stronger than the other tested significant determinants of the adult male mortality rate such as per capita health expenditures, smoking prevalence, consumption of hard drugs and per capita consumption of vegetables and fruit. Still, higher per capita wine consumption has turned out to be a marginally significant determinant of the higher adult male mortality rate in some tests. Latitude, beer and soft drug consumption have turned out insignificant in this study. CONCLUSIONS: Spirits consumption is a major risk factor of adult male mortality, with significantly greater impact compared to beer and wine. Therefore, reduction in distilled spirits consumption in hard liquor drinking areas should be a major target in health policy.

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization.

Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as "Seshat: Global History Databank." We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history.

Effects of Specific Alcohol Control Policy Measures on Alcohol-Related Mortality in Russia from 1998 to 2013.

AIMS: To elucidate the possible effects of alcohol control policy measures on alcohol-related mortality in Russia between 1998 and 2013. METHODS: Trends in mortality, alcohol production and sales were analyzed in conjunction with alcohol control legislative measures. Correlation analysis of health and alcohol market indicators was performed. RESULTS: Ethyl alcohol production was the strongest correlate of alcohol-related mortality, which is probably due to the fact that ethyl alcohol is used for both recorded and unrecorded alcohol production. Measures producing greatest mortality reduction effect included provisions which reduced ethyl alcohol production (introduction of minimum authorized capital for ethyl alcohol and liquor producers in 2006 and the requirement for distillery dreg processing), as well as measures to tax and denaturize ethanol-containing liquids in 2006. Liquor tax decrease in real terms was associated with rising mortality in 1998-1999, while excise tax increase was associated with mortality reduction in 2004 and since 2012. Conventional alcohol control measures may also have played a moderately positive role. CONCLUSIONS: Countries with high alcohol-related mortality should aim for a reduction in spirits consumption as a major health policy. Alcohol market centralization and reduction of the number of producers can have immediate strong effects on mortality. These measures should be combined with an increase in alcohol taxes and prices, as well as other established alcohol policy measures. In 2015 in Russia, this is not being implemented. In Russia, legislation enforcement including excise tax collection remains the major challenge. Another challenge will be the integration into the Eurasian Economic Union.

Potential for alcohol policy to decrease the mortality crisis in Russia.

Post-Soviet Russia experiences among the world's highest prevalence of alcohol-related problems, which contributes to high mortality rates in this region. Reduction in alcohol-related problems in Russia can have strong effects on mortality decline. This article considers the plausibility of application of general principles of alcohol policy translated in the Russian Federation. We conclude that alcohol policy approaches could be implemented in the same ways as they have been in other countries. In addition, there should be special attention to decreasing distilled spirits consumption, illegal alcohol production, nonbeverage alcohol consumption, and enforcement of current governmental regulations.

A cross-cultural investigation of the role of foot size in physical attractiveness.

Disparate cultural practices suggest that small foot size may contribute to female attractiveness. Two hypotheses potentially explain such a pattern. Sexual dimorphism in foot size may lead observers to view small feet as feminine and large feet as masculine. Alternately, because small female feet index both youth and nulliparity, evolution may have favored a male preference for this attribute in order to maximize returns on male reproductive investment. Whereas the observational hypothesis predicts symmetrical polarizing preferences, with small feet being preferred in women and large feet being preferred in men, the evolutionary hypothesis predicts asymmetrical preferences, with the average phenotype being preferred in men. Using line drawings that varied only in regard to relative foot size, we examined judgments of attractiveness in nine cultures. Small foot size was generally preferred for females, while average foot size was preferred for males. These results provide preliminary support for the hypothesis that humans possess an evolved preference for small feet in females.